NON-OIL EXPORTS AND THE GROWTH OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
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ABSTRACT
This study critically investigated the impact of non-oil exports on the growth of the Nigerian economy from 1990-2020 using a disaggregated approach. Specifically, the study investigated the impact of agricultural product export, manufacturing product export, solid mineral export, services product export on real gross domestic product per capital growth rate. Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Data Bank (2020); International Monetary Fund (2020); and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2020) while the sourced data were analyzed using trend analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, stationarity (unit) root test, Johansen co-integration test, and Pair wise granger causality test while the research hypotheses were tested using Vector Error Correction Model. All these were done through the instrumentality of Econometric Views (E-Views) version 9.0. Accordingly, the trend analysis reported that all the study variables fluctuated throughout the period. Meanwhile, the descriptive statistics reported that all the study variables except agricultural product export exhibited high standard deviation value. Additionally, the correlation analysis revealed that none of the independent variables reported high correlation with each other which suggests the possibility of no multi-collinearity problem in the series. Again, the unit root (Augmented Dicker Fuller and Philips Perron) test indicated that all series were found to be non-stationary at levels. However, when subjected further, all the study variables attained stationarity at first difference. This therefore justified the need to test for long run relationship. The Johansson cointegration test affirmed that long term relationship among the study variables while the Pair wise granger causality test reported that uni-directional causality was found flowing from real gross domestic product per capital growth rate to manufacturing product export and from solid mineral export to manufacturing product export. The study affirmed that agricultural product export and manufacturing product export exerted effect on the Nigerian economy (real GDP per capita growth rate). Meanwhile, solid mineral export and services export exerted negative statistical significant effect on the Nigerian economy (real GDP per capita growth rate). Hence, we concluded that all non-oil export indicators exerted high statistical significant effect on economic growth with the exception of agricultural and manufacturing product export. Therefore, we recommended that, pragmatic policy formulation on investment should be centered on the agro-allied sub-sector since it has the potential to better the Nigerian economy. Lastly, the federal government should re-visit existing policies on the solid mineral sector since neglect of the sub-sector as made Nigerian economy to experience untold financial crises.
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